Political forecasting

Political forecasting

Political forecasting aims at predicting the outcome of elections. Models include:

Opinion polls

Polls are an integral part of political forecasting. However, incorporating poll results into political forecasting models can cause problems in predicting the outcome of elections. There are a few ways in which inaccurate election forecasts can be avoided.

Averaging polls

It is well documented that combining poll data reduces the forecasting error of polls. [Alfred G. Cuzan, J. Scott Armstrong, and Randall Jones, [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/index.php/pollys-archive/polly-2004.html "Combining Methods to Forecast the 2004 Presidential Election: The PollyVote"] ] Political forecasting models often include averaged poll results, such as the RealClearPolitics poll average.

Poll damping

Poll Damping is a method of discounting flawed indicators of public opinion when creating a forecasting model. Often, polls early in the campaign are poor indicators of the future choices of voters. By weighting the poll results from days closer to an election to a greater degree than previous polls, a more accurate prediction is established. [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/index.php/who-is-polly/pollycomp-rcp.html#Campbell%20(1996) Campbell (1996)] [Campbell J. E. (1996), "Polls and Votes: The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns," American Politics Quarterly, 24 (4), pp.408-433.] demonstrates the power of poll damping in political forecasting.

Markets

Prediction Markets like the Iowa Electronic Markets provide highly accurate forecasts of election outcomes. Comparing market forecasts with 964 election polls for the five US presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, [http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/trietz/papers/long%20run%20accuracy.pdf Berg et al. (2008)] showed that the IEM outperformed the polls 74% of the time. [http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/trietz/papers/long%20run%20accuracy.pdf] However, damped polls have been shown to outperform prediction markets. Comparing damped polls to forecasts of the Iowa Electronic Markets, [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/PDFs/EriksonWlezien_Markets_AAPOR_for_POLLY.pdf Erikson and Wlezien (2008)] showed that the damped polls outperformed both the winner-take-all and the vote-share markets.

Regression models

Political scientists and economists have employed regression models of past elections to forecast the percent of the two-party vote going to the incumbent party candidate in the next election. Most models consist of between two and seven variables and are estimated over anywhere between scarcely over a dozen elections to close to twice as many. (By contrast, historian [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/PDFs/Keys_forecast_aug_2007_apsa_by_lichtman.pdf Alan Lichtman] uses 13 “Keys” to predict whether the incumbents will be reelected.) A common denominator across most quantitative models is at least one measure of economic conditions, although no two employ the same metrics. Also, most models include at least one public opinion variable, a trial heat poll or a presidential approval rating, although here again there is no unanimity on indicators.

Pollyvote

PollyVote is a political forecasting model which predicts The United States presidential elections.

References


Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.

Игры ⚽ Нужно сделать НИР?

Look at other dictionaries:

  • Forecasting — is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross sectional or longitudinal data. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in… …   Wikipedia

  • Political effects of Hurricane Katrina — This article deals with political effects of Hurricane Katrina other than those related to Criticism of government response to Hurricane Katrina, which are contained in a separate article. The devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina has already… …   Wikipedia

  • economic forecasting — Prediction of future economic activity and developments. Economic forecasts, which range from a few weeks to many years, are widely used in business and government to help formulate policy and strategy. Macroeconomic forecasts predict the course… …   Universalium

  • List of political scientists — This is a list of notable political scientists. See the list of political theorists for those who study politics without using the scientific method.See also Political Science. Notable political scientists A* David Abernethy Comparative Politics …   Wikipedia

  • Land use forecasting — undertakes to project the distribution and intensity of trip generating activities in the urban area. In practice, land use models are demand driven, using as inputs the aggregate information on growth produced by an aggregate economic… …   Wikipedia

  • Institute of Socio-Political Research — The Institute of Socio Political Research under the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISPR RAS) – is a leading Russian academic research center. It is engaged in a fundamental and applied research of social and socio political processes.It was… …   Wikipedia

  • Gary King (political scientist) — Gary King is a published political scientist and quantitative methodologist. He is currently the David Florence Professor of Government and Director for the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard University.BiographyIn 1980, King… …   Wikipedia

  • J. Scott Armstrong — Infobox Scientist name = J. Scott Armstrong image width = 120px caption = birth date = Birth date and age|1937|3|26|mf=y birth place = death date = death place = residence = U.S. nationality = American field = Marketing work institution = The… …   Wikipedia

  • Prediction — A prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future in more certain terms than a forecast. The etymology of this word is Latin (from præ before plus dicere to say ). Niels Bohr stated Prediction is very difficult …   Wikipedia

  • Election — This article is about the political process. For other uses, see Election (disambiguation). Free election redirects here. For the free elections of Polish kings, see Royal elections in Poland. A ballot box An election is a formal decision making… …   Wikipedia

Share the article and excerpts

Direct link
Do a right-click on the link above
and select “Copy Link”